Revolut Mobile, Pudgy Penguins Expansion, OpenSea Wave 4, Aether Games’ shutdown, InfoFi backlash,

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Crypto’s been busy, headlines are hitting hard. Don't worry we got you. The market has been brewing, here's what's currently happening:

🪙Bearish or Bullish

Market Overview

As we approach the end of the year, the market is once again perched on a knife's edge of uncertainty. One of the more quietly significant developments is the Fed's quiet pivot, reinitiating monetary expansion under the radar. With $60 billion per month being printed in what amounts to a “stealth bailout,” concern is mounting over private credit, a sector long considered a bedrock of safe lending.

Now, even its safest instruments are beginning to show cracks. This isn’t just a banking issue. A wider unraveling could force the Fed’s hand, ripple into AI infrastructure funding, raise inflation risks, steepen the yield curve, and significantly increase the odds of recession. The core issue? The system has become entirely debt-dependent, but trust in that debt is rapidly fading.

Despite public facing metrics still painting a picture of relative normalcy, deeper data continues to suggest fractures beneath the surface. And with labor and inflation data on deck, markets will likely respond with volatility regardless of Powell’s attempts to wave off the distortions caused by the prolonged government shutdown.

This week’s key releases:

• Tuesday: ADP Employment, Unemployment

• Thursday: CPI, Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims

Powell has already hinted that the "data may be distorted", but that won’t stop markets from reacting to them.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin made an effort last week to break through its key range high of $93,000, even briefly poking above it. But that move failed to hold, triggering a broader market selloff into this week.

Price is now trading below the range midpoint ($86,800), which puts the spotlight back on whether the market can reclaim that to stay in the upper half of the current structure. A failure to do so increases the probability that we revisit the range lows around $80,524, a level that would be critical to hold in the face of growing bearish sentiment.

From a trend perspective, the larger macro structure hasn’t changed. The levels to watch remain:

• $100,000 – Psychological + technical resistance. A significant wall.

• $107,400 – The breaker. Only a sustained move above this flips the script and opens the door for a short-term bullish reversal.

ETH/USD

ETH had its moment last week, pushing all the way to $3,355, tagging the August low before getting rejected and falling back into the existing range. Still, it’s shown relative strength, especially when compared to the broader altcoin market and BTC itself.

That’s an important distinction. ETH didn’t collapse. It held up decently, continuing to flirt with the idea of retaking leadership at this crucial stage of the cycle.

The key level remains the Cycle Mid at $2,874. That’s our structural line in the sand. If ETH can maintain strength, break out of the downtrend from October, and push decisively through $3,355, then it’s game on for altcoin leadership.

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC broke out of its short term downtrend 2 weeks ago. Last week it pushed up to the 0.036 milestone… but couldn’t hold. Still, this was a key win.

So far, we’ve seen support hold at 0.034, which now becomes a key pivot. If that holds and ETH forms a higher low, we’ll likely see another test of 0.036, potentially breaking it and continuing the move toward the macro downtrend.

And that’s the real cycle test: Can ETH finally break the macro downtrend?

If so, that’s your signal. ETH season is in full swing. Until then, we watch closely.

Altcoin Market Outlook: Final Countdown Begins

We are now clearly entering the final phase of the cycle.

Here’s the playbook we’re watching unfold:

1. ETH begins leading vs BTC, pulling strength into the broader market

2. Bitcoin remains stable, avoiding new highs but not collapsing

3. Altcoins rally hard vs BTC and USD, following ETH’s lead

4. The real altseason begins once ETH’s leadership phase nears exhaustion

At that point, the risk/reward begins to shift, rapidly. While opportunities will still exist, chasing late stage pumps becomes increasingly dangerous. Historically, this is where most participants either overstay with diamond hands, round trip, or FOMO into historic tops.

If there was ever a time to step back and clarify your strategy, it is now. Write down your plan. Define your take profit levels. Know where you're cutting risk. True altseason hasn't begun yet, ETH leadership needs to build and mature first. The explosive 30-45 day peak alt window will likely arrive only as ETH's relative strength starts to die down. Prepare now; how you navigate that phase will define your results for this cycle.

🤑Airdrop Alpha

Moonbirds New SBT for Jupiter Mobile Users
If you’ve used Jupiter Mobile and made at least one ultra swap in the last 8 mths, you’re eligible to claim a Moonbirds SBT.

✅ Claim here: https://minting.moonbirds.com/

If you aren’t eligible, you can still qualify. Just import a wallet into Jupiter Mobile and do one swap in the next 2 weeks.

Moonbirds’ $BIRB TGE is coming soon. Not confirmed, but SBT holders might get a token airdrop.

Portfolio Margin for HyperLiquid is going live soon
Under portfolio margin, a user’s spot and perps trading are unified for greater capital efficiency. Furthermore, portfolio margin accounts automatically earn yield on all borrowable assets not actively used for trading.

Portfolio margin unlocks functionality such as the carry trade where a spot balance is offset by a short perps position, collateralized by the spot balance. Spot and perp pnl offset each other, protecting against liquidation on the perp position.

This greatly increases capital efficiency and HyperLiquid is the only Perps DEX on the market to have such feature. Note that when ByBit introduced this, they experienced spike in open interest and solidified them as one of the leading CEXes.

More info on their docs here: https://hyperliquid.gitbook.io/hyperliquid-docs/trading/portfolio-margin

RateX Snapshot taken on 1 Dec  
Points earned after this date will roll over to S2.

There is vesting for the tokens:

- 20% unlocked at TGE 

- 30% unlicked at TGE + 3 mths

- 50% unlicked at TGE + 6 mths

$RTX will be available on both Solana and BSC

If you would like to receive your tokens on BSC, the deadline to submit your EVM wallet is 2025-12-17 09:00 UTC

This means TGE is likely 18 Dec or after

100+ Airdrop Opportunities in my Notion Airdrop Tracker: https://bit.ly/droptime