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Crypto’s been busy, headlines are hitting hard. Don't worry we got you. The market has been brewing, here's what's currently happening:

🪙Bearish or Bullish

Market Overview

As of December 1st, Quantitative Tightening (QT) officially ended, marking a major shift in monetary conditions. This comes alongside a 90% market-implied probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25bps at the upcoming December 17 FOMC meeting, albeit likely accompanied by a hawkish Powell tone.

Meanwhile, early data from holiday shopping shows positive year over year gains, suggesting that the consumer remains surprisingly resilient, at least in nominal terms. This backdrop supports the possibility of a Santa Rally into the year end.

Important macro events this week include:

• ADP employment data (Tuesday)

• Initial and continuing jobless claims (Thursday)

With unemployment ticking higher in the latest release, the market will be watching closely to see if this becomes a trend or a data blip.

BTC/USD

My core view remains unchanged:

There's a 90% probability the cycle has topped, with only a 10% chance of BTC surprising to new highs.

After last week’s price action, Bitcoin has carved out a short term range:

• Range Low: $80,524

• Range High: $93,000

These levels should guide short term trading expectations. If the recent sell off from the ATH is complete, we want to see $80.5k hold, and ideally price reclaim and break above $93k, paving the way for a push toward resistance.

Key resistance levels remain:

• $100,000 – A major psychological and technical barrier.

• $107,400 – The level BTC must exceed to invalidate the current bearish trend and spark the possibility of a short to medium term uptrend.

Failure to clear $107,400 cleanly would confirm this bounce as a lower high and the broader downtrend as intact. 

ETH/USD

ETH has also established a clear short term range:

• Range High: $3,098

• Range Low: $2,623

The cycle mid at $2,874 remains the critical support to hold.

As previously discussed, this is Ethereum’s “last call” to lead the market. It doesn’t need to go parabolic, but it must begin showing leadership by regaining trend strength and confirming bullish structure.

The next 2–3 weeks will likely determine whether ETH earns that role or concedes it.

ETH/BTC

The short term downtrend remains the primary focus.

If broken, ETH is likely to rally aggressively toward its macro downtrend, and likely challenge it.

Should ETH break the macro downtrend, which I still believe is a real possibility, it would confirm altseason has officially begun. Even a break of the short term downtrend alone could be enough to spark strong ALT/BTC outperformance.

Until then, patience is required. We wait for the signal.

Altcoin Market Outlook

I’ve referred to this as the “overtime window” for months.

I believe we are inside the final 30–60 days of that window.

The conditions that historically precede explosive altcoin rallies are setting up nicely:

• ETH regaining strength vs BTC

• BTC stabilizing (but not reclaiming ATHs)

• Altcoin USD pairs showing R/R expansion

This is the ideal environment for altcoins to outperform both BTC and USD, especially for structured positions with strong technical setups.

However, the risk curve is steep, and the timeframe is short. This is no longer a time for blind risk-on behavior, take profits when offered, avoid round-tripping gains, and do not get caught re-entering once alt season is in full swing.

🤑Airdrop Alpha

Harmonix Snapshot Taken on 1 Dec, Public Sale 24 hours left

If you have deposits on Harmonix, please note:

• Points have stopped accruing since 1 Dec

• You can withdraw HYPE from their vaults (takes 3-5 days)

• TGE is in mid Dec

• Admin on Discord hinted some more announcements regarding points after TGE

• Public sale is ongoing: https://x.com/harmonixfi/status/1995449454824919088

Hylo Alpha on recent X Space

Co-Founder & CEO of HYLO confirmed that Season 1 is coming, and season 0 is ending soon.

There will be a conversion of crowns from S0 XP system “into something useful” for S1 (maybe a multiplier of sorts?), and then the S1 crowns will become “even more useful”.

And more X (leverage) Assets coming soon, which will be announced at Break Point.

$JUP made important Tokenomics Changes

✅ Unstaking period reduced from 30 to 7 days
✅ $33M $JUP tokens in litterbox burned
✅ No more workgroups: less sell pressure of $JUP to fund workgroups

Next up:

• Reduce emissions (Jupuary)

• Litterbox utility

• New ways to integrate JUP across ecosystem

100+ Airdrop Opportunities in my Notion Airdrop Tracker: https://bit.ly/droptime