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Crypto’s been busy, headlines are hitting hard. Don't worry we got you. The market has been brewing, here's what's currently happening:

🪙Bearish or Bullish

With August officially closing red for BTC, my lean has shifted toward the seasonal correction being pulled forward. This means the bulk of the correction may already be behind us, or is at least nearing its end. If this proves true, I expect September to now close green, contrary to what I had previously projected.

As of now, we are in the zone where BTC has historically begun recovering after prior cycle corrections. And while some downside potential still remains in line with average drawdowns, structural strength continues to persist, particularly at the 4hr FibMa Blue Band, which has proven reliable throughout this cycle.

BTC/USD

A few weeks ago I noted that the Blue Band on the 4hr FibMa would be a key zone to monitor. So far, that has proven accurate. Price continues to hold the Blue Band as support, making this one of the more reliable signals of accumulation during this bull cycle.

Context:

• In the 9 times BTC has tested the Blue Band this cycle, 5 instances were short-lived with swift recovery following.

• That context adds strength to the argument that this is a key area to defend, especially with current price structure aligning to historical corrective behavior.

Key Levels I’m Watching:

• Short Term Uptrend: Still intact. However, any signs of weakness could signal a short lived revisit to the lower band or even 100k, if the average drawdown fully plays out.

• $112K: This remains the critical pivot. Holding this opens the door for a reclaim of the prior trading range.

• Cycle Correction Context: Prior corrections have averaged ~20%. So far, this pullback has only reached 13.5%. If a full 20% correction plays out, BTC could retest the $100K–$103K range. That said, price would still be well within bullish structure.

At the moment, momentum remains constructive unless price fails to hold $111K–$109K and breaks the short-term uptrend.

BTC Bull/Bear Levels:

• HD: $118,377

• H4: $113,107

• BB: $111,144

• L4: $109,183

• LD: $103,953

ETH/USD

ETH remains in a strong posture, consolidating within a defined structure between $4,900 and $4,090. Local support around $4,220 is currently being defended, and so far price has maintained composure despite BTC’s corrective behavior.

While it’s still ETH Season, this month tends to favor BTC strength, which means we should expect ETH to either consolidate or lose short term ground.

That said, ETH remains structurally bullish and could easily play catch-up once BTC finishes reclaiming lost dominance. We must still acknowledge that if BTC completes a full cycle correction, ETH could experience a 25–30% pullback from its recent ATH, a possibility that should not be ignored.

Base Case: BTC likely leads for the next 2–4 weeks before ETH reclaims its leader role, resuming full-blown ETH Season.

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC continues to consolidate and build strength under resistance. The macro downtrend was tested a couple weeks ago, and the prior high at 0.04324 remains the critical level to watch.

A break of this level would almost certainly initiate the next major expansion phase for ETH/BTC, and potentially spark broader altcoin rotation as well.

Until then, ETH/BTC will likely remain rangebound, especially if BTC continues to lead the market recovery in the short term.

Altcoin Market 

Across the board, altcoin pairs are testing local highs against BTC and showing signs of life. However, I believe BTC is preparing to reclaim some ground, meaning any strength from altcoins could be short-lived in the near term.

Key observations:

• BTC Dominance is positioned to make another run at 60%.

  • If it does, it could either confirm the cycle high is in (and this is a dead cat bounce), or it could be one final expansion leg for BTC before a broader alt rally resumes.

• If BTC consolidates its gains while ETH and alts stabilize, September could be the last real accumulation window for high conviction alt positions.

• Total3/ETH remains in a downtrend, but we are seeing signs of potential inflection. If alts are going to make a relative move, this is likely the short window for it to happen before ETH kicks into higher gear and resumes dominance.  

  Final Thought: Regardless of how this short term plays out, I continue to believe the window to finish building alt positions is closing. Once the current correction is fully resolved, it’s time to let positions ride into the final phase of the bull market.

  

  Macro & Market News to Watch

  Tuesday

  • Non-Farm Payrolls (Annual Revision): Prior -818K

  Thursday

  • Continuing Jobless Claims: Expected 1.942M (Prior 1.940M)

  • Initial Jobless Claims: Expected 240K (Prior 237K)

  • CPI YoY: Expected 2.9% (Prior 2.7%)

  • Core Inflation Rate YoY: Expected 3.1% (Prior 3.1%)

🤑Airdrop Alpha

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SwitchBoard Airdrops on 9 Sep

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