Crypto liquidation, Monad’s co-founder, Metaplanet’s enterprise value,

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📰Proof of News

GM, GA, or GN LFG.

Crypto’s been busy, headlines are hitting hard. Don't worry we got you. The market has been brewing, here's what's currently happening:

🪙Bearish or Bullish

The U.S. government remains shut down, with no clear update on when operations may resume. This ongoing closure continues to stall the release of critical economic data, including Unemployment, jobless claims, PPI, retail sales, and more all typically produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau.

For now, the market will need to rely on data from independent or semi autonomous institutions, such as the Fed’s Beige Book and regional manufacturing indexes. Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech may also provide important signals. But broadly, this information vacuum could create a lower liquidity, high volatility backdrop, especially if markets begin pricing in rate path expectations without clear data confirmation.

BTC/USD

Last week’s focus was on BTC’s dramatic surge from $109,000 to a fresh all-time high of $126,272, set on Monday. However, that upside momentum quickly gave way to a violent correction as Friday's price action unfolded. As soon as price lost support at the Yellow Band (on the 4H FibMA, short-term setting), a rapid cascade of liquidations followed, shaking out overleveraged altcoin and BTC longs alike.

Thankfully, the Blue Band on the 4H FibMa, once again acted as strong support. From that key support area, BTC has already bounced nearly +10%.

As of now:

• Pay attention to the weeks BB Level $115,089 whether price is above or below will be critical.

• $112,000 remains a critical local support level should we see price pull back.

• The next local key resistance pocket at $116,800–$117,960 is important to watch.

• Reclaiming this zone opens the door for another test of all time highs and potentially a move into true price discovery.

  

BTC BB Levels (Bull/Bear)

• HD: $122,150

• H4: $117,187

• BB: $115,089

• L4: $112,986

• LD: $108,068

ETH/USD

ETH followed a similar path: initially rallying toward the resistance zone between $4,600–$4,956, then suffering a deeper drawdown than BTC. Notably, ETH failed to hold the Yellow Band on the weekly FibMA (long-term), losing $4,488 support and ultimately registering a ~30% drawdown from the all time high, fully realizing the 25–30% correction window I’d flagged earlier last quarter.

Though I had previously believed the correction was behind us, last week made it clear that markets likely had one last flush of liquidity left. With that behind us, I now believe this correction phase is very likely complete.

For this week:

• $4,090 (2024 range high) must hold as support.

• ETH must regain the weekly Yellow Band ($4,430) to build momentum.

A return to the resistance zone between $4,600–$4,956 remains likely if price holds and structure continues improving.

ETH/BTC

The ETH/BTC pair mirrored ETH/USD, drawing down sharply and printing a local low at 0.0326, avoiding my previously outlined worst case scenario of 0.03. Despite the volatility, ETH/BTC closed the week back inside the previously established range: 0.036–0.04324.

This is a crucial technical save. ETH still has room to range here, but I believe we are getting close to the moment where ETH breaks the macro downtrend against BTC and begins to lead the market once again.

The Broader Alt Market

Altcoins were hit the hardest by last week’s move.

Total3/BTC and Others/BTC each printed fresh cycle lows, finally answering the question we've been asking for months: Was the cycle low in? The answer is now no — it came last week. Both metrics tagged the bottom of their long-standing macro descending channels, structures that have defined this cycle since late 2021/early 2022.

From that bottom:

• Total3/BTC has rebounded ~46%

• Others/BTC has rebounded ~60%

It was a devastating but cleansing flush, and I believe these new cycle lows will hold. Some residual drawdown is possible, but structurally, this looks like the final accumulation shakeout before the next phase.

What comes next?

• Watch for ETH to regain market leadership (likely early November).

• Expect Total3/ETH to backfill the massive wick left last week, meaning alts are likely to greatly underperform ETH for a brief period as it asserts dominance.

• Once ETH season returns in full, that’s when you want to be in strong alt positions, but not chasing.

For now, I continue to believe accumulation season is over. This recent “overtime” window was the last major chance. If you're still building positions, be highly selective, have a clear risk plan, and know that you're likely taking on more risk than those who accumulated lower.

Macro News

As long as the government shutdown continues, we will not see updates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics or the Census Bureau. That includes:

• Initial Jobless Claims

• Continuing Claims

• Retail Sales

• PPI

• Building Permits

We will still get data from:

• The Federal Reserve (e.g., Beige Book)

• Regional Feds (e.g., NY Empire State Manufacturing Index)

• Fed Chair Powell’s remarks on Tuesday

  If the government reopens midweek, expect a flood of delayed data to release within 48 hours, likely triggering sudden volatility.

🤑Airdrop Alpha

Airdrop Updates - Week of 12 Oct

Aster Season 2 Claim is Live, Monad Claims on 14 Oct
The Aster Genesis Campaign Season 2 ended on Oct 5, 2025, and S3 is now in play, with new mechanics including Spot, and multipliers for specific tokens. Sol Decoder has a trading bot to automate Aster farming. Please DM me for details.

A Guide: https://x.com/cruzcontrol660/status/1970845476942655960

HyperSwap Checker is Live

HyperSwap TGE is scheduled for 20 Oct. 

75% of the revenue will be used for buybacks.

You can now check your allocation here:
https://x.com/cruzcontrol660/status/1977600545755119763

HyperLiquid HIP-3 is Live, TradeXYZ is the first live perps market

TradeXYZ is invite only and you need to have $5M trading volume to qualify for closed beta. 

Since it is created by HyperUnit, trading on there could qualify for a $UNIT airdrop!

Fortunately Based App has integrated HIP-3 markets, you can trade $XYZ100 index here:

https://app.based.one/r/CRUZCONTROL

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