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Crypto’s been busy, headlines are hitting hard. Don't worry we got you. The market has been brewing, here's what's currently happening:

🪙Bearish or Bullish

Macro Overview

The market enters a pivotal week, with economic data still trickling out due to residual delays from the historically long government shutdown. Notably, key inflation metrics like CPI and PPI are expected to land late, December 18 is the current placeholder for both. In the meantime, eyes turn to ADP and JOLTS data on Tuesday, which are anticipated to land within range of expectations, continuing a broader five-year soft downtrend in job openings.

The Fed, meanwhile, moves forward uninterrupted. The market has priced in a 25bps rate cut with nearly 100% certainty for Wednesday’s FOMC decision. However, the expectation is that Powell will pair this cut with a hawkish tone during the press conference, likely reiterating caution and highlighting persistent labor market tightness and inflation risk. On Thursday, Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims are set to reinforce these trends, as labor market softness continues to echo through the economy.

From a seasonal lens, the setup still favors a potential Santa Rally. Between the dovish rate cut, improving retail holiday sales data (outperforming YoY so far), and resilient consumer activity, December still offers the ingredients for a year end push. But volatility around Fed commentary and delayed inflation data makes patience essential.

BTC/USD

As noted over the past several weeks, my broader view remains unchanged: the cycle top is most likely in. I continue to hold that we have about a 90% probability that BTC has topped, and only a 10% probability of new highs surprising us.

Structurally, BTC continues to trade within the defined range we highlighted last week:

• Range Low: $80,524

• Range High: $93,000

Although price has made a few attempts above the range high, each attempt has not held yet. This underscores the strength of resistance near $93K, and the importance of watching for a true breakout and sustained acceptance beyond that level.

Zooming out, the primary resistance levels remain the same:

• $100,000 – A major psychological and technical level.

• $107,400 – The level BTC must exceed to invalidate the current bearish trend and spark the possibility of a short/medium term uptrend.

Since last Tuesday, BTC has reclaimed and held above the 4hr FibMa Blue Band, a positive short term sign. If price can continue to close above this level, the stage is set for further upside exploration, potentially toward that $93K resistance zone again. However, should the Blue Band fail, we may see more consolidation within this established range or a run on the range lows.

ETH/USD

Ethereum continues to show signs of relative strength, something we've been anticipating. Last week, ETH broke above its local range highs more convincingly than BTC, a promising signal in the context of ETH possibly reclaiming market leadership.

That said, we need stronger confirmation. ETH needs to decisively:

• Break and hold above the October downtrend

• Reclaim the August low at $3,355

While we’re not quite there yet, ETH is moving in the right direction. If it can break the downtrend and maintain momentum, this could be the spark for broader sector rotation. As mentioned in previous articles, this is Ethereum’s last chance to take the lead and ignite the true altseason.

ETH/BTC

This chart is finally showing the progress we’ve been waiting for.

• The short-term downtrend has broken, removing a major structural headwind and setting the stage for ETH to rally aggressively against BTC.

• The next major milestone is a move to 0.036, which would confirm ETH’s strength and potentially mark the beginning of its move to the macro downtrend.

If ETH can break the macro downtrend, that will be the defining moment that confirms altseason has arrived. Until then, we remain in anticipation mode, but even now, a rally against BTC off this short term break could provide meaningful upside in select altcoins.

Altcoin Market Outlook

We are now entering what I’ve repeatedly referred to as the final phase of the cycle.

Here’s the expected sequence:

1. ETH begins leading vs BTC, pulling strength into the broader market

2. Bitcoin remains stable, avoiding new highs but not collapsing

3. Altcoins rally hard vs BTC and USD, following ETH’s lead

4. The real altseason begins once ETH’s leadership phase nears exhaustion

At that point, the risk/reward begins to shift, rapidly. While opportunities will still exist, chasing late stage pumps becomes increasingly dangerous. Historically, this is where most participants either overstay with diamond hands, round trip, or FOMO into historic tops.

If there was ever a time to step back and clarify your strategy, it is now. Write down your plan. Define your take profit levels. Know where you're cutting risk. True altseason hasn't begun yet, ETH leadership needs to build and mature first. The explosive 30–45 day peak alt window will likely arrive only as ETH's relative strength starts to die down. Prepare now; how you navigate that phase will define your results for this cycle.

Final Thoughts

The market is nearing its climax. With macro, technicals, and seasonality aligning, we are likely approaching one of the most explosive phases of the entire cycle. The excitement will likely be overwhelming but so will the risk.

Stay sharp. Stay disciplined. And above all, don’t be the exit liquidity for someone else’s strategy.

This is your chance to be the 10%. Make it count.

🤑Airdrop Alpha

HyENA Goes Live on 10 Dec

Built by Based App and Ethena Labs, HyENA is a Perps DEX built on HyperLiquid’s HIP-3 and offers the same fast execution, deep liquidity, and low latency. 

In addition:

• USDe as collateral which earns yield on top of any trading profits

• Currently 12% boosted APY for the 1st month, while you have a qualifying Long position open and for more than 1 hour

• Fee rebates if you migrate in the next 7 days

• 100M weekly points (no HyENA token), points will go towards $ENA airdrop

• HLPe vault earns USDe Yield + Trading Fees/PnL + HyENA Points

You can trade on HyENA via Base App here (under HIP-3 tab, look for USDe pairs):
https://app.based.one/r/CRUZCONTROL

Hylo launches Season 1

Season 0 of Hylo ended on 5 Dec. With S1:

• Crowns earned in S0 carry over to S1 (tiered for fairness)

• For example, Quants (120 crowns) get a 10.2% XP boost in S1

• XP model will be the same, basically Capital x Time = XP

• S1 will be the most important season, duration not yet finalised 

Hylo is deeply integrated in Solana DeFi, which includes Kamino, LoopScale, Exponent, RateX and Project 0, with more on the way.

Join here: https://hylo.so/leverage?ref=XNDJ9K

Markets.xyz launches kmHYPE

Developed by Kinetiq, Markets.xyz is an upcoming decentralized exchange (DEX) platform built on HyperLiquid’s HIP-3. 

kmHYPE is a fixed-supply token (max 888,888) that's a revenue-sharing LST for Markets.xyz.

Holders get a perpetual cut of Markets' activity—minimum 10% of gross revenue distributed proportionally, while 90% fuels growth and liquidity under the HIP-3 framework.

On 8 Dec, $KNTQ holders will get priority to swap 1:1 for kmHYPE with kHYPE.

If you missed out, there will be secondary markets to get kmHYPE via DEXes.

100+ Airdrop Opportunities in my Notion Airdrop Tracker: https://bit.ly/droptime