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📰Editors Notes

After 70 editions, alphaTLDR is levelling up. Starting this week, your favourite Web3 weekly lands in your inbox twice a week, every Tuesday and Friday. Expect more stories, fresh voices, and deeper dives into the our favourite chaos we love to call Web3.

📰Proof of News

GM, GA, or GN LFG.

Crypto’s been busy, headlines are hitting hard. Don't worry we got you. The market has been brewing, here's what's currently happening:

🪙Bearish or Bullish

BTC/USD

Last week, BTC attempted to flip the Orange band into support but failed, triggering a decline from $109K to a low of $102.8K. This week, I’m watching the BB level at $105.6K. If price holds this level, a move back toward last week’s high of $110.6K is possible, which would open the door for a retest of the current ATH at $112K. However, should weakness return to the market later in the week, we could see a move down toward theYellow band (currently $102.9K and rising each day).

BTC Bull/Bear Levels

• HD: $112.8K

• H4: $107.7K

• BB: $105.6K

• L4: $103.5K

• LD: $98.4K

ETH/USD

ETH remains trapped within a defined range between $2,325 and $2,730. Last week, it briefly pushed above that range but failed to hold, returning back within. A break and hold of either boundary will likely guide short-term direction.

Longer term, ETH remains below the Blue band on the weekly FibMa (currently $2,750 and slowly dropping each week until the trend shifts), keeping it in a broader accumulation zone. Until we see a confirmed reclaim of this band, ETH likely won’t start the next cycle leg, but when it leads by outperforming BTC, it may be the signal that altcoins are ready to follow.

ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC continues to test major resistance at 0.026 while holding support at 0.0225. Until this breaks one way or the other, the pair remains range bound. I’m still anticipating that ETH will lead the next wave when altcoins eventually rotate back into favor, but for now, it continues to lag BTC.

BTC Dominance & Broader Altcoin Market (Total3/BTC & Others/BTC)

BTC Dominance remains in a clear uptrend. Unless that trend is broken or we see a major push upward forming a definitive top, I expect this dominance to persist into September, which aligns with current market expectations for a monetary policy pivot.

This directly correlates with the continued weakness in the broader altcoin market when measured against BTC. Both Total3/BTC and Others/BTC hit new cycle lows last week. I believe there's still room for further downside in alts over the short term, especially if BTC continues to lead or consolidates with strength.

That said, this weakness is not necessarily a negative, it’s a window for accumulation. As we approach late summer, and the possibility of looser monetary policy increases, the tide may begin to shift back toward higher risk plays. Until then, staying patient and selective with alt exposure remains the better play.

Macro & Market News to Watch This Week

This week’s main risk event is Wednesday, where a cluster of data and Fed communication could introduce volatility. If the numbers come in line with expectations and the Fed sticks to the current narrative, it's likely business as usual, and the uptrend in BTC and risk assets can continue. However, any surprises, particularly hawkish tones or soft economic prints, could easily spook markets, especially with how fragile sentiment has been at these levels.

Tuesday

• Retail Sales MoM (May): Expected -0.7% (Prior 0.1%)

Wednesday

• Initial Jobless Claims: Expected 245K (Prior 248K)

• Fed Interest Rate Decision: Expected 4.5% (Prior 4.5%)

• FOMC Economic Projections

• Fed Press Conference

Final Thoughts

The market remains in a higher risk period, but the longer we consolidate at higher levels, the more likely we are to see a stronger base for continuation. As we approach the back half of the year, remember: patience through summer is key, but so is preparation. The next cycle shift may begin as macro conditions turn. When that happens, the opportunity to secure profits and shift from a bullish bias to a more cautious one will be critical.  Markets are walking a tightrope, clear guidance and solid data will keep the trend intact, but any cracks could accelerate risk off behavior.

This is not financial advice, just my observations and opinions. Please do your own research before making any investment decisions.

🐸Memecoin Momentum

Patience has become the name of the game when it comes to trenching. In other words, buying coins you have conviction in and holding them, seems to be the best current strategy. The bull run we experienced a few months ago has slowed down massively. Less and less coins are graduating, while the ones that do graduate don’t last long. However some tokens hold steady through the market turbulence.

$LABUBU hits 4.51M net flow from whales

- retesting higher lows with more whale buys. A good signal for the next take off.

$HOUSE sees the highest whale trades

- The community pushing this is built different. Still trending after all these weeks. The sell offs don’t seem to affect the community, that keeps buying the token.

$MASK vol reached an impressive 13M vol

- small pullback, but def something to look into.

$ USELESS quickly hits 70M + followed by a retrace to 58M. After which it went to 100m, now around 80m. Emotions seem to be high for this one.

$HOSICO whales buy big at 16M

- Still holding strong after a few weeks. Whales seem to love this coin. Doesn’t look like it’s going anywhere anytime soon.

$Brainlet came out of nowhere with a 50%+ increase overnight. What do the buyer know that we don’t?

$Fartcoin reigns supreme as it holds at 1.17B MC. Last week there were massive sell offs, hinting the token’s decline, however $Fartcoin whales refuse to go down quietly, with a few $1M dollar buys coming in the few days.

$AURA has got to be The winner of the week with an insane 70%+ increase overnight. Currently sitting around 180m, this coin has left people stunned and speechless. Around 219 wallets bid $4M dollars this past week, taking $Aura to new unseen heights.

Other tokens like $Fwog, $Moonpig, and $Moby are seeing an increase in activity. These Memes look strong here, which could mean it’s time to bid conviction plays. Trenchers are getting wrecked chasing new drops, but conviction plays could be the move for now.

We are seeing a massive shift in the memecoin ecosystem. As solana memes struggle, eth Memecoins seem to be all the hype. Next week we’ll dive more into eth ecosystem, highlighting a few tokens that have taken the crypto market by storm.

🤑Airdrop Alpha

$HYPE has been on a tear and making ATHs after ATHs. So this issue is all about things to do on HyperEVM and some major updates to top protocols:

Felix Protocol revamps UI and launches USDHL
Felix Protocol has grown from a CDP protocol to now a full fledged lending protocol with the second highest TVL on HyperEVM. On top of the $feUSD CDP, and vanilla lending markets for USDe, USDT0, their latest product offering is $USDHL, a fiat-backed stablecoin. It already reached $10M supply within days of launching and it keeps growing.

It also offers one of the highest stablecoin yields with 13% currently, and you get Felix points as well which will likely translate into an airdrop.
Join here: https://usefelix.xyz?ref=6D1FC14C

HyperBeat Major Updates

HyperBeat integrated money markets using the Morpho stack, on top of their Vault strategies. You can borrow USDe against $HYPE, $BTC and $ETH with some of the lowest rates on HyperEVM. 

They also run a HyperLiquid validator in collaboration with P2P and Hypio.

Their HyperFolio product is the best in the space for tracking your DeFi positions on HyperEVM, they even added support for Spot, Perps, Vaults and Staking balances on HyperCore. This means you can view your positions in one place, which is a very welcome quality of life feature.

Get started here: https://app.hyperbeat.org/earn?referral=9041756C

HyperDrive Cap Raise

HyperDrive is a rare protocol which is mentioned by the official HyperLiquid X account (Felix and HyperBeat are one of them).

They recently launched and the cap was filled within 24 hours. They are about to raise the cap on 17 June 10 pm GMT+8.

Official announcement here: https://x.com/hyperdrivedefi/status/1934793126713143441

100+ Airdrop Opportunities in my Notion Airdrop Tracker: https://bit.ly/droptime