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Crypto’s been busy, headlines are hitting hard. Don't worry we got you. The market has been brewing, here's what's currently happening:

🪙Bearish or Bullish

Market Overview

The market got a dose of clarity this past week, and some of it was more hawkish than bulls had hoped for.

As anticipated, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate down to 4.00%. However, Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a message that pumped the brakes on speculation about further easing. In his own words:

“A rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion, far from it.”

That single line shook the optimism around a December follow up cut and reinforced the idea that the Fed is watching the data closely before committing to more dovish action. Powell avoided further commentary on December speculation, which markets interpreted as a cautious stance.

The more significant development, however, was the Fed’s announcement that it will halt quantitative tightening (QT) by stopping the balance sheet runoff starting December 1st. While this isn’t QE, it signals a move toward liquidity normalization, and in this environment, not draining liquidity is almost as bullish as printing fresh money.

Meanwhile, the U.S. government remains shut down, and tension in Congress is rising. Discussions to remove the filibuster (which currently requires a 60 vote threshold) in favor of a simple majority vote are gaining momentum. Should that happen, expect a brief spike in volatility once the government reopens, as markets recalibrate for rapid legislative shifts.

BTC/USD

Last week, Bitcoin failed to hold $112,000, the level we clearly outlined as the must hold threshold for bullish continuation. The breakdown wasn’t dramatic at first, BTC bounced off the 4H FibMA Blue Band, closing the week at $110,524.

But the start of this week has seen more weakness, with price now revisiting the 4H FibMA Blue Band again at around $105,758.

Here’s where it gets technical, and psychological. Since late August, BTC has repeatedly tested the Blue Band, acting as both support and decision zone. And while bulls have defended it multiple times, repeated tests of a level tend to weaken its structural integrity.

As the saying goes: the more times a door is knocked on, the more likely it is to open.

In this case, that "door" could swing open to the downside, meaning we should prepare for the possibility that BTC loses the Blue Band in the short term. That doesn’t automatically spell doom, but it would likely trigger a final shakeout before a new leg higher.

The flip side? If BTC reclaims $112,000 decisively, the market could quickly shift toward momentum breakout mode, targeting the high BB levels and possibly all time highs if macro tailwinds assist.

My view: If we do get a breakdown, it would likely be the last gift of this cycle, a deep value opportunity before bullish continuation. But if BTC instead reclaims $112,000 without another flush, I’ll look for signs of impulsive strength with $117,255 in play.

BTC BB Levels

• HD: $117,255

• H4: $112,750

• BB: $110,524

• L4: $108,335

• LD: $103,823

  

ETH/USD

Ethereum’s posture mirrors Bitcoin’s, and that’s not a compliment. Like BTC, ETH failed to confidently hold above its 2024 range high of $4,090, closing the week with shaky structure.

If ETH weakness continues, we need to be mentally and technically prepared for a deeper retrace.

Key downside levels to watch:

• $3,355 — the August low and first strong support

• $2,874 — the “cycle mid” and worst-case downside target (in my view)

I’m not inherently bearish here, I still prefer to play this level to level, but loss of local structure would trigger a reset of expectations. Conversely, if strength returns, then reclaiming and holding above $4,090 is the only confirmation needed to get bullish again.

ETH/BTC

After weeks of holding at 0.036, the ETH/BTC pair finally gave way last week, breaking down with conviction.

Now trading just above 0.0326, the level last touched during the October 10th market wide flush, ETH/BTC is approaching the bottom of its multi month range. While I’m watching for localized support here, the overall structure remains weak.

The key to watch this week is whether we:

• Bounce from this current low and test the short term downtrend.

• Or break below to form a new lower low, which would further delay ETH season.

Until we reclaim the macro downtrend line, I expect ETH dominance to remain suppressed.

Altcoin Market Outlook

Despite the recent ETH/BTC breakdown, the broader altcoin market remains firmly in the "overtime accumulation window" we've talked about over the last few weeks. That thesis remains intact.

But let me emphasize: the clock is ticking.

While ETH struggles, altcoins still have a unique window to consolidate and reposition, especially after the August-October volatility. I continue to believe that accumulation is the right strategy here, but it must be done selectively. Don't chase. Don’t overexpose. Look for coins with structure and relative strength.

Once ETH/BTC breaks the macro downtrend, the altcoin window will slam shut. At that point, risk/reward compression and volatility will favor already established positions, not late entries.

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Monad Early Reveal is Ongoing

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